Heavy rains in Somalia, coupled with disputes between clans, resulted in over four thousand IDPs seeking shelter in 2012. AU UN IST Photo / Tobin Jones

13 October 2017 – Research findings released today on International Day for Disaster Reduction forecast a continued rise in homelessness among people in the world’s most disaster prone countries unless significant progress is made in managing disaster risk. 

A unique modelling exercise based on the latest data covering 204 countries and territories calculates that sudden onset disasters such as floods and cyclones, are likely to displace on average 13.9 million people each year, excluding those involved in pre-emptive evacuations. 

Most of this displacement is being driven by flooding which is on the increase in a warming world where population growth in hazard-prone parts of the world has increased exposure. 

The issue has come into sharp focus as the world copes with a record breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season, and record floods across Bangladesh, India and Nepal. 

Eight of the ten countries with the highest levels of Average Annual Displacement or probable risk of future displacement and loss of housing are in south and south-east Asia: India, 2.3 million; China, 1.3 million; Bangladesh, 1.2 million; Vietnam, 1.0 million; Philippines, 720,000; Myanmar, 570,000; Pakistan, 460,000; Indonesia, 380,000; Russia, 250,000; USA, 230,000. 

The study, “A Global Disaster Displacement Risk Model” launched today by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre of the Norwegian Refugee Council and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) models displacement resulting from the destruction of housing caused by earthquakes, tsunamis, riverine floods and tropical cyclones. Slow on-set disasters attributed to drought and sea-level rise are not included.