The 2015 earthquake caused extensive damage to the Nepal capital, Kathmandu

By Denis McClean

KATHMANDU, 26 April, 2019 - Despite the three tremors felt across the Kathmandu Valley mid-week as Nepal prepared to mark the 4th anniversary yesterday of the deadly Gorkha earthquake, scientists say that Kathmandu is not the country's most-at-risk location for earthquakes. 

The UN Country Team in Kathmandu is looking to the future management of disaster risk and has been working with Durham University, UK, and the Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) on promoting the findings of a new study which could revolutionize disaster preparedness across the country.

Scientists led by Dr. Tom Robinson of the Geography Department, Durham University, using the latest modelling techniques have considered the impacts from 90 different earthquake scenarios and this has raised alarm bells about the exposure and vulnerability of western Nepal where there has been no major earthquake for over 500 years.

The modelling provides estimates of the total number of damaged buildings and casualties resulting from each scenario and locations in which they occur.  The resulting total risk map allows planners to identify locations to prioritize for urgent earthquake risk reduction.  The individual maps allow planners to identify which factors to target such as housing stock, health facilities and transport links.

Dr. Robinson said: “A key finding of the study is that Kathmandu is not the most at-risk location and focusing just there overlooks considerable risk elsewhere in Nepal. There are over nine million Nepalis living in districts with greater earthquake risk than Kathmandu.  Earthquake risk is highest in rural western areas of Nepal.”

The devastating earthquake which struck Nepal on April 25, 2015, killed 9,000 people, injured 22,000 and destroyed or damaged almost one million houses in many districts in the Kathmandu valley and the east of the country.