Observations of the stock market and economic models forecast GDP effects under a single, abrupt and rapid "freeze" of economic activity. They cannot, however, estimate the long-term development of health care costs, the impact on the labour market and productivity etc. caused through the different phases of the pandemic, although these would be essential for assessing the full economic costs of the pandemic.

The same applies to the economic policy response: Supporting the economy to the greatest possible extent quickly and unbureaucratically "whatever the cost" is the commonly used economic crisis response strategy - albeit with unknown long-term consequences.

In the dark – the social consequences of COVID-19 

The social impacts can neither be quantified nor can they be assessed in a generalised way at present. Given the heterogeneity of the population at large, generalising statements are difficult to make. What we have so far seen, however, and can expect more in the future, is that domestic violence and abuse, especially against women and children, will increase with the spread and the duration of the pandemic, that people with mental (pre-)illness or conditions such as depression, will increasingly suffer from anxiety disorders or loneliness within the framework of social distancing strategies, but also after they have been eliminated. The loss of (family) income will plunge many people into existential economic crises, which will lead to increased excess mortality (through suicide, cardiovascular disease, alcohol and drug abuse, etc.), which could sometimes exceed the direct health consequences, including fatalities. People who are cared for at home or who are themselves caring for relatives are also increasingly facing distress. The ban on schooling generally reinforces the social disadvantage of so-called "educationally disadvantaged milieus", in which the already above-average need for support is not compensated for by the family. On the whole, pandemics exacerbate social inequality unless effective countermeasures are taken. But politics often fail to see those particularly vulnerable groups, because people are ashamed to point out that they are in need of help, or because they forego such help on their own initiative. Our social sensors and the socio-medical reporting are inadequate for a pandemic crisis at the national and, even more so, at the international level.

A global research and data infrastructure for economic and social impacts 

The COVID-19 pandemic is in many ways a major test for our global research and data infrastructures. Open science clouds and data collections must serve the needs of a comprehensive science-based policy, not only in "normal times" but also in times of crisis. We need a broad exchange of high-quality data in real time and on a global scale for a range of national and internationally coordinated scientific and policy tasks - in health policy, but no less so in economic and social policy.

Author:

Prof. Reimund Schwarze, Head of the Climate Change and Extreme Events RG at the Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig and the member of the UNDRR European Science and Technology Advisory Group (E-STAG)

Hazards

Epidemic & Pandemic

Themes

Governance Recovery

Country & Region

Europe